Run these checks with matched dates and one set of commerce, cost, and spend data. For each check, decide what changes the launch plan and who owns the next action.
Know what each offer leaves after ads.
A lower CPA can still produce less contribution. Compare the discount, product cost, fulfillment, fees, gift cost, and ad spend together.
- Use
- AOV, gross margin, fulfillment cost, payment fees, blended CPA, and the proposed offer.
- Check
- Calculate contribution per order before ads. Then calculate the orders and CPA needed to preserve or grow CM3.
- Change the plan
- Change the offer or spend plan if the required CPA sits below performance you can support.
Separate new-customer economics from repeat orders.
Blended revenue can improve while acquiring a customer becomes more expensive. Repeat orders can hide the change.
- Use
- New and returning customer orders, revenue, contribution, acquisition spend, and cohort repeat purchases.
- Check
- Compare first-order contribution and acquisition cost for new customers. Check repeat contribution by cohort at matched ages.
- Change the plan
- Set an acquisition limit from observed contribution. Use repeat revenue only when the cohort evidence supports it.
Test the offer rules customers will actually use.
A spend threshold changes which orders qualify. Stacked discounts and free shipping can change the economics again.
- Use
- Order values, discount exclusions, spend thresholds, shipping rules, and subscription or bundle terms.
- Check
- Test orders below, at, and above each threshold. Include discount stacking, gift eligibility, and mobile checkout.
- Change the plan
- Fix the rules or the message before launch. Model the share of orders that qualify, rather than the headline discount alone.
Match the order plan to stock and dispatch capacity.
Your growth target becomes a service problem when the promoted product sells out or dispatch misses the promise.
- Use
- Sellable stock, inbound dates, daily dispatch capacity, gift stock, and the shipping promise.
- Check
- Convert the offer scenarios into daily orders and units. Compare the peak day with stock and dispatch limits.
- Change the plan
- Change the promoted products, volume target, or shipping promise where the plan exceeds capacity.
Make sure purchase reporting survives the promotion.
A broken purchase event can change bidding and reporting during the highest-spend days.
- Use
- Commerce orders, purchase events, event IDs, order values, attribution settings, and consent behavior.
- Check
- Run a permitted test purchase through the main mobile path. Check value, currency, deduplication, and reporting against the order record.
- Change the plan
- Fix missing or duplicate events. Document reporting differences before the team starts making daily spend decisions.
Check how much growth is new demand.
A promotion can convert customers who would have bought anyway or move their next purchase forward.
- Use
- New-customer orders, branded demand, returning-customer orders, prior promotions, and post-promotion sales.
- Check
- Compare the promotion with matched periods. Separate new-customer growth, captured demand, and the decline after the offer ends.
- Change the plan
- Adjust the forecast for orders pulled forward. Use a holdout where feasible before claiming incremental growth.
Set the rule for the next dollar of spend.
Average ROAS does not tell you whether the next budget increase adds contribution.
- Use
- Daily spend, new-customer orders, net revenue, contribution, reporting delay, and prior budget changes.
- Check
- Compare the extra spend with the extra orders and contribution it produced. Account for conversion lag before making the call.
- Change the plan
- Write the scale, hold, and reduce rules before launch. Use contribution and acquisition cost alongside platform ROAS.
Plan concepts, formats, and placements for the budget.
Use existing performance to decide which concepts and formats need more coverage at your target spend.
- Use
- Current monthly Meta spend, target spend and dates, ad-level performance, creative formats, and placement delivery.
- Check
- Group distinct concepts and compare performance by format. Review monthly creative coverage against spend, then identify the gaps in the Black Friday plan.
- Change the plan
- Give each concept a customer problem, proof, offer treatment, and test question. Allocate formats from performance and prepare the placement exports needed.
Make the mobile offer clear from ad to checkout.
Customers should see the same offer, eligibility, and shipping promise at every step.
- Use
- Live ads, landing pages, product pages, cart, checkout, and the promotion rules.
- Check
- Follow the main paid-media path on a phone. Check the offer message, page load, discount application, payment, and shipping cost.
- Change the plan
- Fix the first point where the promise changes or the customer must work out the offer themselves.
Give acquired customers a reason to buy again.
The first order starts the customer relationship. The forecast should show what happens after the promotion ends.
- Use
- Post-purchase flows, replenishment timing, second-order rate, repeat contribution, and subscription retention.
- Check
- Review the next purchase path for a promotional customer. Compare repeat behavior with cohorts acquired outside promotions.
- Change the plan
- Set the follow-up offer and message from the product cycle. Do not assume every discounted customer repeats at the same rate.
Run the review with your own data.
Use the prompt in Claude or your preferred assistant.