Promotions add first orders while full-price acquisition declines

What you see

Promotion periods generate more first orders, but first orders outside promotions fall under comparable conditions.

Illustration: promotion first orders rise from 300 to 420 per comparable week while non-promotion first orders fall from 200 to 150. — Compare matched seasonal and stock conditions.

Check this first

Separate promotion and non-promotion results, including contribution after discounts.

Data needed

First orders, discount amounts, net revenue, and variable costs
Promotion dates, offer terms, and stock history
Acquisition spend for comparable promotion and ordinary periods

Run the check

#1
Mark promotion periods and identify eligible first purchases.
#2
Compare matched seasonal periods with the same stock conditions.
#3
Calculate contribution and mature repeat outcomes for the offer cohorts.
#4
Check whether the result meets the stated promotion case.

Calculate

Compare first-order counts and contribution after variable costs and acquisition spend. Net revenue already includes discounts; don't deduct them twice.

Compare groups

Promotion versus non-promotion
Offer depth
New-customer source
Product and cohort age

What a healthy result looks like

Promotion results meet the brand’s stated economic case. Non-promotion performance remains visible and is judged separately.

When to investigate

Use the actual contribution calculation and the brand’s promotion case. A promotion-dependent business isn't automatically unhealthy.

Possible causes

The offer generates temporary demand without improving ordinary acquisition.
Discount-led acquisition produces lower order value or slower payback.

Rule out these explanations

A deliberate promotion-led business model
Seasonal or stock differences
Cohorts compared at different ages

What to do next

Report promotions separately. Test offer depth or non-price acquisition against an explicit contribution goal.

What this check can tell you

Matched cohorts describe differences. They don't prove the offer caused lower customer value.

Use this check with AI

Run a read-only check for: Promotions add first orders while full-price acquisition declines.
First confirm the available sources, columns, row grain, date basis, currency, and customer definition. Use only authorized data.
Required inputs: First orders, discount amounts, net revenue, and variable costs; Promotion dates, offer terms, and stock history; Acquisition spend for comparable promotion and ordinary periods.
Check: Promotion periods generate more first orders, but first orders outside promotions fall under comparable conditions.
Calculate: Compare first-order counts and contribution after variable costs and acquisition spend. Net revenue already includes discounts; don't deduct them twice.
Slice by: Promotion versus non-promotion; Offer depth; New-customer source; Product and cohort age.
Use this comparison rule: Use the actual contribution calculation and the brand’s promotion case. A promotion-dependent business isn't automatically unhealthy.
Show the source totals, calculation, unknown groups, missing inputs, and result. Don't invent fields, thresholds, customer matches, or causal effects.
Rule out: A deliberate promotion-led business model; Seasonal or stock differences; Cohorts compared at different ages.
Describe the observed signal separately from possible explanations. If the check is incomplete, state the exact data needed.
Make no account or budget changes.

Sources and definitions

Shopify: profit reportsProduct cost and discounts affect reported gross profit. Acquisition contribution also requires explicitly included variable costs.Read source
Shopify: customer reportsFirst-purchase history, new versus returning customers, and equal-age cohort comparisons.Read source