Black Friday LTV and payback calculator.

Judge an offer by the new customers it acquires. The discount hits only the first order. Repeat orders come back at full price. See the CAC each offer can carry and when it pays back. Start here, then check the month 1 cost on customers you already have.

Start with your new-customer numbers

Use new customers only. For the cost on customers you already have and this month's cash, use the month 1 offer calculator.

AOV ($)Before the proposed offer. Gross margin (%)After product cost. Fulfillment / order ($)Shipping, packaging, and 3PL. New-customer CAC ($)Media spend ÷ new customers. Repeat orders, next 12 monthsPer new customer. Payback target (months)1 to 12.

Today, per new customer

first-order contribution

12-month contribution

payback month

Compare offers on new customers

At today's CAC. Select an offer to pressure-test it below.

Scroll sideways to compare and edit offers →

Choose and configure offers
Offer	BaselineNo offer, today's CAC.	Percentage off	Amount off	Free gift
Configuration	No additional offer.	Discount (%)	Amount off ($)Minimum spend ($)	Gift cost to you ($)
Repeat rate vs normal customers (%)	100%

New-customer economics at today's CAC
Metric	Baseline	Percentage off	Amount off	Free gift

Amount off assumes half of orders reach the minimum spend. Set your order mix in the offer economics calculator or the workbook. Lower the repeat rate if offer buyers come back less often than your normal customers.

Pressure-test payback

Set the new-customer CAC you expect with the offer. See the payback month and what each new customer returns over 12 months.

Expected CAC with this offer ($)

Today

First-order contribution

12-month contribution per customer

Stand-still CAC

Payback month

12-month LTV:CAC

12-month contribution after CAC

Payback month at each CAC

The discount shifts the payback curve left: the same CAC takes longer to pay back. Drag the chart to change the expected CAC.

Selected offerNo offerWithin payback target

How the math works

First-order contribution is the offer-price order less product cost, fulfillment, a 3% payment fee, and gift cost. Repeat orders in the next 12 months come at full price, so each earns today's contribution per order. 12-month contribution per new customer is first-order contribution plus repeat orders times repeat contribution times the repeat rate.

Stand-still CAC keeps today's 12-month LTV:CAC: CAC falls by the same share as 12-month contribution. Payback month is the month when cumulative contribution reaches CAC, with repeat orders spread evenly over 12 months.

The workbook adds the month 1 planner, returns and shipping charged, and a payback grid by discount and CAC.

Download the complete Black Friday Offer planning workbook.

One editable Excel workbook with your numbers filled in: the month 1 offer planner, spend grid, discount ladder, and this LTV and payback view.

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